Issue 13 Jan 23 2026 5 min read

Inventory pushed ahead of demand this week.

Negotiation still looked alive this week.

Market balance

Buyer Seller
2 / 10

Buyer market - buyers have clear control.

New listings 0 Choice widened for buyers.
Sales 0 Only the right fit moved.
Absorption
(4wk avg)
0 Inventory is clearing slowly.
Market pressure Buyer edge Buyers have leverage - pricing needs to be sharp to move.
Buyer take

Expect choice, and do not be afraid to negotiate.

Seller take

Pricing and presentation need to do the heavy lifting.

Market read

The week, in plain English

This was a useful week because it showed where buyers would act - and where they would not. 7 new listings arrived while 1 sale closed. The active pool is expanding without the same pace of sell-through. 0 sold over ask while 1 sold under ask. Taken together, this was a market that stayed active, but only rewarded listings that were positioned correctly. Price cuts became part of the story this week.

What I’m watching next

Whether the best new listings get picked off early.

If the clean listings move early, demand is still there underneath this. If they do not, the next push likely comes from sellers getting sharper on price rather than from buyers suddenly disappearing.

The charts that matter

The charts that matter

The charts help show whether this week was noise or part of a broader pattern. That is where the market tone becomes easier to read. The useful question is not just what happened this week, but whether it is starting to stack.

Inventory

95.0 current

High 136 · Low 5.00

Inventory

95 homes on market

Supply is running above last year, giving buyers more room to compare and negotiate.

1-year view

In this view: High 136 · Low 5 · Avg 95

Current snapshot: Current 95 · Vs last year ↑ 4% · 70% of cycle high

Low Inventory cycle High

Sales pace

2.38 / week

High 5.38 · Low 1.50

Sales

2 sales/week

Demand is present, but monthly absorption remains light relative to available supply.

1-year view

In this view: Avg 2 · Absorption 0.0% monthly · Range high 5

Current snapshot: Current 2 · Vs last year ↓ 30% · Balanced conditions.

New listings

New listings

The week usually reveals itself through new listings first. That matters because this market is still making listings earn attention. From there, everything else is just response.

If you want the tone of the week, start with what hit the board. That matters because not every active week is an easy one.

If I’m trying to get a fast read on the week, I start here.

2131 Highway 3 Highway - $1,199,500

Worth watching early - detached launches often tell you fastest whether buyers are prepared to act or just compare.

Detached launches like this tend to tell you fastest whether buyers are ready to act or still compare.

Also new this week

See all listings →

New sales

New sales

Sales happened - but they did not come easily.

Buyers are still active, but they are choosing carefully. The right listings still move, while others need more time or a sharper number.

The market is still willing to leave weaker fits sitting. That points to a market where confidence has to be earned. Listings that feel stretched may have to sit before they reset. 0 sold over ask while 1 sold under ask. Median sold price was $782,000. Price moves are doing more of the market’s talking right now. That tells you buyers are not accepting stretch pricing automatically. The market should keep rewarding realism over ambition.

Price cuts

Price cuts

  • 2 visible price cuts this week
  • Weekly cut rate: 2.0% of active listings
  • Median reduction: $89,501

Pressure on the board

  • 35 active listings are currently trading below original list
  • Reduced active share: 35.7% of the current active board
  • Expired / cancelled this week: 3 (2 expired, 1 cancelled)
  • 4-week average: 1.5 cuts/week
  • 12-week average: 0.8 cuts/week

This week’s cuts to watch

That usually means sellers are getting feedback more quickly. Sellers who adjust decisively may avoid longer periods of drift.

Financing backdrop

Financing backdrop

Fernie is its own market, but I still keep an eye on the broader financing backdrop because buyers do feel it.

  • BoC rate: As of 2026-01-23, the Bank of Canada policy rate was 2.25%, which matters most for variable-rate borrowers and helps shape borrowing confidence.
  • Bond yields: Canada’s 5-year bond yield remains the main fixed-mortgage watch, and it had moved sideways versus about a month earlier.
  • Oil / inflation mood: Oil was quiet into the week, so it was not adding much inflation pressure.

Insight

The next useful tell

Whether buyers keep acting on the sharp listings first.

If the clean listings move early, demand is still there underneath this. If they do not, the next push likely comes from sellers getting sharper on price rather than from buyers suddenly disappearing.

Closing insight

Closing insight

Inventory is building faster than demand - that keeps the edge with buyers.

Data notes. Data sourced from MLS activity for the week ending Jan 23 2026. Numbers reflect the Fernie market unless otherwise noted.

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