Issue 8 Dec 19 2025 5 min read

Sales outpaced new listings this week.

The right listings are still separating first.

Market balance

Buyer Seller
6 / 10

Balanced - slight seller edge.

New listings 0 Choice was still limited.
Sales 0 Deals are getting done, but buyers are choosing carefully.
Absorption
(4wk avg)
0 Enough moved to keep the board active.
Market pressure Balanced - seller lean No clear control - sellers have a slight edge.
Buyer take

Good listings can still move first, so hesitation can cost you.

Seller take

Well-positioned listings can still create momentum.

Market read

The week, in plain English

The board looked healthy enough at first glance, but buyers were still filtering hard. 1 new listing arrived while 3 sales closed. Sales are keeping up well with incoming inventory. 1 sold over ask while 2 sold under ask. Taken together, this was a market that stayed active, but only rewarded listings that were positioned correctly. The board is showing where value is getting tested.

What I’m watching next

Whether the best new listings get picked off early.

If the clean listings move early, demand is still there underneath this. If they do not, the next push likely comes from sellers getting sharper on price rather than from buyers suddenly disappearing.

The charts that matter

The charts that matter

The charts help show whether this week was noise or part of a broader pattern. That is where the week either confirms the trend or starts to challenge it. The better read here is about direction, not drama.

Inventory

114 current

High 136 · Low 5.00

Inventory

114 homes on market

Supply is running above last year, giving buyers more room to compare and negotiate.

1-year view

In this view: High 136 · Low 5 · Avg 114

Current snapshot: Current 114 · Vs last year ↑ 25% · 84% of cycle high

Low Inventory cycle High

Sales pace

3.88 / week

High 5.38 · Low 1.50

Sales

4 sales/week

Demand is present, but monthly absorption remains light relative to available supply.

1-year view

In this view: Avg 4 · Absorption 0.0% monthly · Range high 5

Current snapshot: Current 4 · Vs last year ↓ 3% · Balanced conditions.

New listings

New listings

The week usually reveals itself through new listings first. That matters because the numbers look cleaner than the reality underneath. From there, everything else is just response.

If you want the tone of the week, start with what hit the board. That matters because not every active week is an easy one.

If I’m trying to get a fast read on the week, I start here.

4 SUNSET Lane - $2,699,999

Worth watching early - detached launches often tell you fastest whether buyers are prepared to act or just compare.

Detached launches like this tend to tell you fastest whether buyers are ready to act or still compare.

See all listings →

New sales

New sales

Sales happened - but they did not come easily.

Buyers are still active, but they are choosing carefully. The right listings still move, while others need more time or a sharper number.

One listing cleared quickly while another took the long road. Buyers are active, but the board is not clearing quickly. That tells you buyers are present without much urgency. Pricing and presentation remain the difference between momentum and drift. 1 sold over ask while 2 sold under ask. Median sold price was $580,100. The board is showing where value is getting tested. That suggests sellers are being forced closer to the market faster. The market should keep rewarding realism over ambition.

Price cuts

Price cuts

Pressure on the board

  • 35 active listings are currently trading below original list
  • Reduced active share: 35.7% of the current active board
  • Expired / cancelled this week: 10 (10 expired, 0 cancelled)
  • 4-week average: 0.0 cuts/week
  • 12-week average: 0.8 cuts/week

Largest active cuts to watch

  • Largest cut35 active listings are currently trading below original list
  • Reduced active share: 35.7% of the current active board
  • Expired / cancelled this week: 10 (10 expired, 0 cancelled)
  • 4-week average: 0.0 cuts/week
  • 12-week average: 0.8 cuts/week

Active cuts to watch

Financing backdrop

Financing backdrop

Fernie is its own market, but I still keep an eye on the broader financing backdrop because buyers do feel it.

  • BoC rate: As of 2025-12-19, the Bank of Canada policy rate was 2.25%, which matters most for variable-rate borrowers and helps shape borrowing confidence.
  • Bond yields: Canada’s 5-year bond yield remains the main fixed-mortgage watch, and it had moved higher versus about a month earlier.
  • Oil / inflation mood: Oil was quiet into the week, so it was not adding much inflation pressure.

Insight

The next useful tell

Whether buyers keep acting on the sharp listings first.

If absorption stays this firm, the better-positioned listings may not wait around for second looks. If it slips, that firmer tone probably fades quickly once more supply shows up.

Closing insight

Closing insight

Listings are getting absorbed cleanly - sellers still have some control.

Data notes. Data sourced from MLS activity for the week ending Dec 19 2025. Numbers reflect the Fernie market unless otherwise noted.

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