Issue 9 Dec 26 2025 5 min read

The week stayed broadly balanced on paper.

Buyers still had room to push back.

Market balance

Buyer Seller
5 / 10

Balanced - slight buyer edge.

New listings 0 Choice was still limited.
Sales 0 Only the right fit moved.
Absorption
(4wk avg)
0 Enough moved to keep the board active.
Market pressure Balanced - buyer lean No clear control - buyers have a slight edge.
Buyer take

Expect choice, but be ready to act on clean listings.

Seller take

Pricing and presentation are still deciding outcomes.

Market read

The week, in plain English

This was a useful week because it showed where buyers would act - and where they would not. 1 new listing arrived while 2 sales closed. The weekly flow looked fairly balanced on the surface. 0 sold over ask while 1 sold under ask. Taken together, this was a market that stayed active, but only rewarded listings that were positioned correctly. This week’s board moves made seller adjustments easier to see.

What I’m watching next

Whether extra supply leads to action or just more comparison.

If the sharper listings keep moving first, the market likely stays balanced but selective. If they start to stall, that usually means the next move comes from pricing, not from a lack of interest.

The charts that matter

The charts that matter

One week can wobble - the charts are better at showing direction. That is where the market tone becomes easier to read. The better read here is about direction, not drama.

Inventory

111 current

High 136 · Low 5.00

Inventory

111 homes on market

Supply is running above last year, giving buyers more room to compare and negotiate.

1-year view

In this view: High 136 · Low 5 · Avg 111

Current snapshot: Current 111 · Vs last year ↑ 22% · 82% of cycle high

Low Inventory cycle High

Sales pace

3.38 / week

High 5.38 · Low 1.50

Sales

3 sales/week

Demand is present, but monthly absorption remains light relative to available supply.

1-year view

In this view: Avg 3 · Absorption 0.0% monthly · Range high 5

Current snapshot: Current 3 · Vs last year ↓ 18% · Balanced conditions.

New listings

New listings

If you want the tone of the week, start with what hit the board. That matters because this is still a market that filters hard. That sets up the rest of the week.

If you want the tone of the week, start with what hit the board. That matters because not every active week is an easy one.

The easiest place to start this week is with new inventory.

7471 1st Avenue - $599,000

Worth watching early - land tends to attract a more patient buyer, so early traction matters if pricing is meant to feel sharp.

Detached launches like this tend to tell you fastest whether buyers are ready to act or still compare.

See all listings →

New sales

New sales

Sales happened - but they did not come easily.

Buyers are still active, but they are choosing carefully. The right listings still move, while others need more time or a sharper number.

Longer DOM is still part of the picture for listings that miss the mark. That means buyers are engaging, but on their own terms. Sellers who start too ambitiously may pay in time. 0 sold over ask while 1 sold under ask. Median sold price was $370,000. This week’s board moves made seller adjustments easier to see. That usually means buyers are pushing back on optimistic positioning. Sellers who align early may avoid longer periods of drift.

Financing backdrop

Financing backdrop

Fernie is its own market, but I still keep an eye on the broader financing backdrop because buyers do feel it.

  • BoC rate: As of 2025-12-26, the Bank of Canada policy rate was 2.25%, which matters most for variable-rate borrowers and helps shape borrowing confidence.
  • Bond yields: Canada’s 5-year bond yield remains the main fixed-mortgage watch, and it had moved higher versus about a month earlier.
  • Oil / inflation mood: Oil was falling into the week, so it was easing some inflation pressure.

Insight

Where expectations met the market

If the market pushed back anywhere, it was here. That is where sellers start reacting to the market they have, not the one they wanted. That makes this section useful well beyond the raw count.

No fresh price cuts landed this week, but the reduction layer is still active on the board.

If there was softness this week, it showed up here. This is one of the better places to see whether sellers are still pushing - or starting to listen.

Pressure on the board

  • 35 active listings are currently trading below original list
  • Reduced active share: 35.7% of the current active board
  • Expired / cancelled this week: 5 (4 expired, 1 cancelled)
  • 4-week average: 0.0 cuts/week
  • 12-week average: 0.6 cuts/week

Active cuts to watch

Even without a fresh weekly cut, this still matters because a lot of the active board is already negotiating against original expectations.

Closing insight

Closing insight

Balanced on paper - but buyers still have the edge in how deals are getting done.

Data notes. Data sourced from MLS activity for the week ending Dec 26 2025. Numbers reflect the Fernie market unless otherwise noted.

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